ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s GDP growth rate falls into zero range at negative -0.38 percent for the outgoing fiscal year; the total size of the country’s economy and per capita income are expected to shrink significantly in terms of dollar in post Covid-19 pandemic.
The total size of Pakistan’s economy in terms of dollars has decreased up to US$264 billion for outgoing fiscal year 2019-20 against revised estimates of US$279 billion. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s per capita income had also nosedived into US$1,271 during the current fiscal year 2019-20 against US$1,363 for the last financial year 2018-19. The government has failed to achieve the GDP growth rate target as it stood negative at -0.4 percent against the estimated fixed target of positive 3.3 percent for the outgoing fiscal year. The growth rate plunged into the negative zone for the first time in the last 68 years as it had reached once into the negative zone at 1.8 percent during the financial year of 1951-52.
The National Accounts Committee (NAC) announced provisional estimated GDP growth rate of negative -0.4 percent (precisely -0.38 percent) for the outgoing fiscal year. Except agriculture and financial business sectors, all other sectors of the economy have so far attained negative growth. The agriculture sector achieved positive growth of 2.7 percent with major crops growth of 2.9 percent and livestock sector growth of 2.6 percent, while the manufacturing sector registered negative growth of -5.6 percent for the outgoing fiscal year as large scale manufacturing (LSM) sector also showed negative -7.8 percent growth.
The services sector witnessed negative -0.6 percent growth for the outgoing fiscal year against revised estimates of positive 3.8 percent for the last financial year. The wholesale and trade registered negative growth of -3.4 percent, transport, communication and storage at negative -7.1 percent for the outgoing fiscal year, while the financial businesses have registered positive growth of 0.8 percent for the outgoing fiscal year. According to the announcement after 102nd NAC meeting, it stated that the provisional estimates of the GDP and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) for the year 2019-20, were presented on the basis of latest data of 6-9 months, which were annualised by incorporating the impact of Covid-19 for the final quarter.
The provisional growth of GDP for the year 2019-20 was estimated at -0.38 percent, which is based upon the growth estimates of the agricultural, industrial and services sectors at 2.67 percent, -2.64 percent and 0.59 percent, respectively.
